"More Grain Deal Aftermath,
the World Markets Don't Need Ukrainian Grain After All,
Russia Isn't Interested in Negotiations Except on Its Terms."
The Real Politick with Mark Sleboda (June 25, 2023)
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/more-grain-deal-aftermath-the-world?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=1083041&post_id=135475614&utm_medium=email#details

Russia isn’t interested in “coming to the negotiations table” on any terms but complete capitulation to their SMO goals

Cartoon of Zelensky sitting alone at negotiating table amid the rubble:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b4e5c52-df17-4cfe-b97b-137c46d4acfb_1000x642.webp

9:50 Dr Wilmer Leon: “Administration hopes for negotiation fade amid slow progress on the ground. Mark, this is the Wall Street Journal. I don’t get it. ‘Administrations hopes that Kiev could negotiate with Moscow.’ But hasn’t the United States quashed, squashed, or done everything in its power to prevent negotiations from taking place? I seem to recall back in April [of 2022] after this thing started that Boris Johnson was sent to Ukraine by the United States to tell Zelensky under no circumstances are you going to reach a negotiated settlement with Russia.”

10:30 Mark Sleboda: “That is the narrative that is kind of presented. But numerous Ukrainian officials have come forward and gloated how they pulled another one over on Russia, that they never had any intention of committing to a peace deal, they were just stalling for time until they got guarantees of Western military support. But they were never serious about it. As well, they think they hoodwinked Russia with it and got Russia to withdraw its forces from around Kiev, just like they did with the Minsk agreements for nine years. So I don’t think there was ever any chance for that from this regime.

11:07 “I think the hope of the US, certainly from the beginning, they hoped that the Russian economy would collapse. And then they hoped that arms and supplies and funding and training would magically rejuvenate and manufacture wholesale a whole new Ukrainian Army capable of defeating Russian forces on the battlefield, or that some kind of political cracks in Russian society and politics would force Russia to end it. None of that has actually happened. With this offensive it is clear that the Biden administration knew that Crimea and the Donbas were a lost cause. But they hoped that the Kiev Regime’s offensive was strong enough to make some gains in the south, in Kherson and Zaporozhya, they thought they were still in play. That they could force Russia to accept the loss of those in peace negotiations. They would then push, after Kiev’s successful offensive. Well, there is no successful offensive. Even if there was, I don’t think Russia would be inclined to talks at all. They were very insistent, from the very beginning that not only are they standing by the goals that they set out, but that they have actually increased it already to include Kherson and Zaporozhya as well. And numerous Russian officials, including the foreign minister and the former President and Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, have both started talking, numerous times, about regime change now being the end goal in Ukraine.

12:58 “So, I don’t see that Russia would have gone to the negotiation tables, as well. They do read the Western papers and, of course, have their own intelligence. And they know that NATO is completely out of 155mm artillery rounds, at least of the normal variety and don’t have the productive capacity to come anywhere close to meeting the Kiev regime’s demands or meeting that of the Russian military industry’s production. And this in a war of attrition fought largely with artillery. They know how poorly NATO is at this point being able to continue to supply much needed military equipment to the Kiev Regime. They know that time is on their side. They know that their economy is growing, while many European economies are in recession. I don’t see any reason that they would have gone to negotiations to begin with. I think this was a lot of hopium both in military and political dreams by Western politicians of a situation they simply find themselves unable to find an off-ramp from.”